Measuring forecast accuracy
نویسنده
چکیده
It is important to evaluate forecast accuracy using genuine forecasts. That is, it is invalid to look at how well a model fits the historical data; the accuracy of forecasts can only be determined by considering how well a model performs on new data that were not used when estimating the model. When choosing models, it is common to use a portion of the available data for testing, and use the rest of the data for estimating (or “training”) the model. Then the testing data can be used to measure how well the model is likely to forecast on new data.
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تاریخ انتشار 2014